August 15, 2008
Konstantin Grigorichev: Demographic Policy Should Be Based On Scientific Prognosis
When working out demographic policy we should be guided by scientific prognosis, believes Konstantin Grigorichev, the leading expert at Foundation of Regional Development of Irkutsk Oblast. He will speak at the discussion titled ‘’Priorities of the development of Siberia and the Far East: demographic policy, healthcare, labor potential” that will take place within the framework of the 5th Baikal Economic Forum.
Efficient demographic policy has to be worked out and put into practice in Irkutsk Oblast. Scientific analysis of the situation is crucial for it. We should change administrative methods of prognosing for well-grounded calculations and realistic forecasts based on objective research, stressed Konstantin Grigorichev.
He emphasized the need to preserve the set of measures aimed at stimulating fertility. Nowadays women who give birth or adopt a second or a third child get a welfare payment till the time their child reaches three years of age. Konstantin Grigorichev said that the state should think about other ways of support, too. Besides, according to him, we cannot just stake on measures increasing birth rate, but also have to carry out serious and long-term programs aimed at decreasing death rate, especially that of people in able-bodied age. The Foundation of Regional Development expert said that there is a need of a super effort in the cause of decreasing death rate, as far as it has to deal not only with healthcare measures, but also with solution of the area’s social and economic problems.
Population is an important resource but at the same time it is a factor limiting economic projects. In the nearest future Irkutsk Oblast will face severe competition for this important resource. Nowadays it is impossible to keep people in place by administrative means. Therefore the winners in this struggle for labor resources will be those regions that manage to provide high standards and quality of life. For this reason the projects that involve creating some points of attraction for the Irkutsk Oblast population are of utmost importance. One may have any kind of opinion about the Irkutsk agglomeration, but we have to admit that it is urban environment and a better quality of life and widening opportunities that creates possibilities for decreasing migration and death rate and increasing life expectancy. Therefore agglomeration is a powerful vehicle of the Oblast demographic development, said Konstantin Grigorichev
The expert emphasized the fact that steps towards improving the demographic situation in Irkutsk Oblast are being taken. For example, Regional Department for Family and Demographic Policy, Custody, and Tutelage has been recently created. However there is a lack of specialists in demography as there is no system of demographic education at the regional level. According to Konstantin Grigorichev a possibility of organizing educational seminars is being discussed with the Department.
A goal-oriented program titled ‘Demographic Development of Irkutsk Oblast’ is being currently worked out. The Foundation for Regional Development of Irkutsk Oblast has suggested to include in the 2009 program a task to elaborate a demographic passport of the area. It is planned to collect information in all districts of the Oblast and carry out a thorough analysis of the demographic situation considering not just statistics but also sociologic research. A demographic passport is a tool of policy making, concluded Konstantin Grigorichev.
